experience matters

Admittedly, this is more of a question than a statement, but make no mistake — I’m not merely asking if this is true.

For the last several years, Google has been a juggernaut, able to release whatever they felt like and it was received with open (and anxious, often with reckless abandon) arms. We’ve all enjoyed such wonders as Google Search, Google AdWords, Google Maps, Google Translate, Google Earth, Blogger, Gmail, Google Groups, Google Analytics, Google Desktop, and the Google Search Appliance.

But I wonder if Google’s run out of cool stuff to freely hand out, and are beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

To show you what I mean, let’s look at Google’s track record. Most of the items mentioned above were rolled out without fanfare, sometimes without any publicity at all. The media leapt all over Google with the release of the Maps system, because it was the first real AJAX implementation. Not long afterwards, everyone realised that it was also the first real mashup-enabling system, too. Earth was released as a free version of the former Keyhole system. And it’s been enhanced continually ever since. Desktop has saved my keister more times than I dare count.

Google has asked nothing for these wonderful services — except perhaps obedient loyalty, which many of us are willing to hand over without so much as a second thought.

But recently … where has Google been? Sure, we’ve been quick to (ab)use their generousity, but that steady flow of cool had better keep up. And the most recent releases are far from the same level of cool. In a complete departure from regular procedure, Google put out widely-circulated press releases. Toto, I don’t think we’re in Oz, anymore.

Google OpenSocial

Back at the end of October, rumours surfaced that Google was going to release something called “Maka-Maka“, which many took as a Facebook-killer. Hopes soared with the imminent release of the “next big thing”. (Again, given Google’s track record, it wasn’t hard to expect that.)

OpenSocial wasn’t what anyone expected. People wanted a website. They got a programming interface they could use through existing websites (and from what we’ve been able to see, it’s mostly Orkut). Facebook was not one of them. MySpace is, although many are thinking that MySpace joined to try to stay afloat. But does anyone care about Orkut anymore?

This is an API — something that appeals only to programmers. You need something that supports an OpenSocial container, which discounts virtually every blogging system out there (as a point of note, it was blogs that made Maps huge). That seems a gross oversight if you want to dominate social networking. Blogger, anyone?

Google Android

For months, almost since Apple first announced the release of the iPhone (curiously, also far in advance of availability — a departure for Apple), rumours flew about for the gPhone — an iPhone-killer. News was rampant about Google wanting to get into the wireless spectrum auction, and doing everything in their power to tick off the major carriers.

“It’s Google,” everyone thought in a hushed whisper, “they’ll come up with something so cool and fun to use that we’ll throw away our old cell phones now so we’ll be ready for it.”

I think there’s a Cult of Google.

So Google releases Android to … the sound of a pin dropping. Where’s the phone? Where’s the funky hardware? Where’s the 3D holographic display with neural interface? C’mon, it’s GOOGLE.

It’s an API. Another programming interface. Unlike OpenSocial, there’s nothing right now (except development environments) in which to see Android. It’s as close to vapourware as Google has come.

The camp divides here. One side of the wall believes that this is still the next big thing, and Android will revolutionise the market. Then there are those (and I’m one of them) who think: “So what?“

The general public — the average person who uses a cell phone — cares only about functionality, cost, and coverage. They don’t know (or care) about the underlying software. The iPhone was a runaway success because it was something new, different, and something they could put in their hand. The fact that there’s a version of OSX underneath it all appealed only to a small fraction of the market.

Demand won’t be there. I’m not about to run out and buy a phone merely because Google wrote the underlying software. (Which they didn’t, really — Google bought the company that did.) I’ll buy it because the interface is well-made, the functionality matches what I need, the network coverage is good, and the battery life is long.

No demand means no carriers will be rushing out to buy them, either. It might be cheaper for the manufacturers (Android’s licensing might be cheaper that other Java-based systems), but that’s just the cost of the phone. Most of us (in North America) get our phones heavily subsidised (or free), anyway.

And don’t think the market hasn’t noticed. Google’s stock is dropping. DROPPING. Lower. Less value. Google’s stock has lost $125 in value this month alone. It might just be the tip of the iceberg (and a lead-in to the next bubble burst), or it could just be realisation that Google’s not perfect.

Maybe Google has truly slipped. They’re not defining the future anymore, they’re trying to keep up with it. Like so many other large companies before them, they’re trying to be everything to everyone, and the stretch marks are beginning to show.

Last 5 posts by Cory Brunsel

• 2009 Predictions: Rough Seas Ahead – January 1st, 2009
• 2008 Prediction Recap: History Repeating – January 1st, 2009
• Blog or Die – October 31st, 2008
• I (heart) Google Chrome – September 2nd, 2008
• “Here I go again on my own…” *sigh* – May 13th, 2008

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