Google starting to slip

Posted by Cory Brunsel / November 21, 2007 10:58 am 

Admittedly, this is more of a question than a statement, but make no mistake — I’m not merely asking if this is true.


Google Slipping Stock

For the last several years, Google has been a juggernaut, able to release whatever they felt like and it was received with open (and anxious, often with reckless abandon) arms. We’ve all enjoyed such wonders as Google Search, Google AdWords, Google Maps, Google Translate, Google Earth, Blogger, Gmail, Google Groups, Google Analytics, Google Desktop, and the Google Search Appliance.

But I wonder if Google’s run out of cool stuff to freely hand out, and are beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

To show you what I mean, let’s look at Google’s track record. Most of the items mentioned above were rolled out without fanfare, sometimes without any publicity at all. The media leapt all over Google with the release of the Maps system, because it was the first real AJAX implementation. Not long afterwards, everyone realised that it was also the first real mashup-enabling system, too. Earth was released as a free version of the former Keyhole system. And it’s been enhanced continually ever since. Desktop has saved my keister more times than I dare count.

Google has asked nothing for these wonderful services — except perhaps obedient loyalty, which many of us are willing to hand over without so much as a second thought.

But recently … where has Google been? Sure, we’ve been quick to (ab)use their generousity, but that steady flow of cool had better keep up. And the most recent releases are far from the same level of cool. In a complete departure from regular procedure, Google put out widely-circulated press releases. Toto, I don’t think we’re in Oz, anymore.

Google OpenSocial

Back at the end of October, rumours surfaced that Google was going to release something called “Maka-Maka“, which many took as a Facebook-killer. Hopes soared with the imminent release of the “next big thing”. (Again, given Google’s track record, it wasn’t hard to expect that.)

OpenSocial wasn’t what anyone expected. People wanted a website. They got a programming interface they could use through existing websites (and from what we’ve been able to see, it’s mostly Orkut). Facebook was not one of them. MySpace is, although many are thinking that MySpace joined to try to stay afloat. But does anyone care about Orkut anymore?

This is an API — something that appeals only to programmers. You need something that supports an OpenSocial container, which discounts virtually every blogging system out there (as a point of note, it was blogs that made Maps huge). That seems a gross oversight if you want to dominate social networking. Blogger, anyone?

Google Android

For months, almost since Apple first announced the release of the iPhone (curiously, also far in advance of availability — a departure for Apple), rumours flew about for the gPhone — an iPhone-killer. News was rampant about Google wanting to get into the wireless spectrum auction, and doing everything in their power to tick off the major carriers.

“It’s Google,” everyone thought in a hushed whisper, “they’ll come up with something so cool and fun to use that we’ll throw away our old cell phones now so we’ll be ready for it.”

I think there’s a Cult of Google.

So Google releases Android to … the sound of a pin dropping. Where’s the phone? Where’s the funky hardware? Where’s the 3D holographic display with neural interface? C’mon, it’s GOOGLE.

It’s an API. Another programming interface. Unlike OpenSocial, there’s nothing right now (except development environments) in which to see Android. It’s as close to vapourware as Google has come.

The camp divides here. One side of the wall believes that this is still the next big thing, and Android will revolutionise the market. Then there are those (and I’m one of them) who think: “So what?”

The general public — the average person who uses a cell phone — cares only about functionality, cost, and coverage. They don’t know (or care) about the underlying software. The iPhone was a runaway success because it was something new, different, and something they could put in their hand. The fact that there’s a version of OSX underneath it all appealed only to a small fraction of the market.

Demand won’t be there. I’m not about to run out and buy a phone merely because Google wrote the underlying software. (Which they didn’t, really — Google bought the company that did.) I’ll buy it because the interface is well-made, the functionality matches what I need, the network coverage is good, and the battery life is long.

No demand means no carriers will be rushing out to buy them, either. It might be cheaper for the manufacturers (Android’s licensing might be cheaper that other Java-based systems), but that’s just the cost of the phone. Most of us (in North America) get our phones heavily subsidised (or free), anyway.

And don’t think the market hasn’t noticed. Google’s stock is dropping. DROPPING. Lower. Less value. Google’s stock has lost $125 in value this month alone. It might just be the tip of the iceberg (and a lead-in to the next bubble burst), or it could just be realisation that Google’s not perfect.

Maybe Google has truly slipped. They’re not defining the future anymore, they’re trying to keep up with it. Like so many other large companies before them, they’re trying to be everything to everyone, and the stretch marks are beginning to show.

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  • http://www.tylerreed.co.za/ Tyler

    Real though provoking post Geoff. On the API side of things, I think Google is giving others the power to come up with the “cool stuff” once again inspiring the mash-up and co-creation. I am not equally excited as some, but Google isn’t a stupid company, the know where they want to be and I am sure they still have lots more instore for us.

  • http://www.scottmonty.com Scott Monty

    Oops. Make that link: http://urltea.com/25lb

  • http://www.criticalmass.com/ Geoff Sowrey

    Very true, Google is far from dumb. I still highly admire their business acumen at being able to walk the very fine line of “do no evil”. Very few companies are really doing this, and being honest about it.

    Maybe OpenSocial will really take off, making Orkut the actual Facebook-killer. Seems like a bit of a stretch, but it really takes only one person to realise the power — and everyone else to notice.

    As for Android … I guess I’m still sceptical that the API will change the mobile market.

  • http://www.sowrey.org/2007/11/21/google-starting-to-slip/ Google starting to slip at Sowrey.org

    [...] Continue reading ‘Google starting to slip’ at Experience Matters [...]

  • http://www.hot.com Brian

    Google has had lots of flops before: google.base, orkut is maybe not a flop, but it’s not want they wanted. froogle hasn’t worked very well. A dreadful catalogue scanning app which mercifully died. I don’t think I google finance has really taken off. Their purchase of Blogger hasn’t really revolutionalized the blogging space, has it?

    Google has never been perfect. It tries a lot of things, and gets a couple very right. Those are the ones people remember. You haven’t been paying attention

  • http://www.criticalmass.com/ Geoff Sowrey

    Brian, you’ve certainly identified some of Google’s less-stellar projects. I’ve already mentioned Orkut in the article, but I think many people have forgotten about Google Base. Most weren’t even aware that Google Answers was mercifully killed off (Yahoo!’s Answers appears to be live and well), and there is little doubt that Froogle didn’t have the impact that everyone expected. I would like to think Google’s still had far more successes than non-successes (I’m hesitent to say “failures”, as even the bombs have some value).

    My point specifically with OpenSocial and Android wasn’t so much that Google’s supposedly-perfect image was slipping (you are quite correct — they’ve never really been perfect), but that they’re actually engaging in marketing about their services/products (the press releases), something outside of Google’s usually release-and-use habit.

  • DevlinD

    Google’s share price may tell a story, but to judge the value a company provides based solely on market cap or share price is not usually a good way to go about determining the true value of a company.

    Right now Google is setting the stage for its next big push in both social networking and in the mobile space. Its big products (OpenSocial and Android) may not be in production quite yet, but its a far cry from vapourware.

    OpenSocial may not be what everyone expected, but once it really starts to roll out across the partner sites that are supporting it, the true power of this approach will be realized and everyone once again will be singing Google’s praises.

    The same goes for Android. This operating system has a real chance to revolutionize the world’s cellular markets, particularily those in North America. Look at the upcoming FCC auction for the 700MHz spectrum. If it wasn’t for Google throwing its hat in the ring, I highly doubt that the FCC would have even thought twice about specifying open access to all devices and applications as a requirement of the 700MHz spectrum and the big comfortable incumbent telcos would just be able to sit back and continue raking in their extortion-like fees and keeping their customers in their respective mobile information silos. North America’s mobile market is infantile when compared to those in the rest of the world (particularily Asia) because of the telcos iron grip on customer lock in and their love for closed systems.

    Google knows where the mobile market is heading, and it’s destined to be the biggest consumer technological shift in the industry since the invention of the web, or more comparitively the PC. Numbers in Japan show that Japanese people are finding less and less use for PC devices and want more of that functionality to be available on a more mobile platform. Android is not designed to compete with the iPhone, its designed to compete with the likes of the OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) program that offers ultra cheap laptops to developing nations. Google just hopes that with their mobile operating system they can change the game when it comes to the feature:price ratio. Offering a truly open and superior mobile OS at a cost that will essentially be unbeatable is what will shoe horn them in there as the new default OS for mobile devices. Think the ubiquitousness of Windows but built with the quality of Linux.

    So while right now, Google appears to not be delivering highly anticipated products at the same clip that it once did, it can be argued that the only reason these products are not being highly touted yet is because they haven’t even been released yet. Most of the noise we’ve heard about these products has more to do with the partners they have signed on to use their products and less to do with the products themselves (with the exception of that $10 million competition for Android applications).

    So taking all of this into account, if Google isn’t changing the world, who is?

  • http://www.recessionproofadword.com Recession Proof

    Interesting information, I love reading anything Google Adwords related.

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