Experience Matters

2009 Predictions: Rough Seas Ahead

I thought 2008 would be a non-year for events, at least as far as technology was concerned. I was off on that prediction — there were a few notable points (such as an attempted Yahoo! takeover and the iPhone 3G launch). I played it “safe”.

This year is different. “Safe” isn’t an option. This isn’t going to be an easy year, folks. It’s gonna get ugly. That’s how I see it, anyway…

US Patent and Trade Office Lawsuit

I’ve had a long-standing issue with the US Patent and Trade Office: namely that it doesn’t actually serve its purpose very well. Sure, it allows people to register new ideas, but the way its organised allows for a considerable amount of abuse, and it’s getting worse.

If you look at the Microsoft vs. Eolas issue a couple of years ago, it was a sure sign that things would get worse. Eolas was the first major success of what is now known at patent trolling — people who acquire patents for the sole purpose of suing someone else for not getting a license to use the idea. This has led many companies to patent ideas just so they won’t get sued by someone else (Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, and IBM do this extensively).

I think the problem’s actually gotten so bad that someone — maybe the EFF, or possible even Google itself — will launch a lawsuit against the USPTO, and demand that changes are made to patent law. They will say the rules will need to be changed, and that patents can’t be held by holding companies (thus creating the patent trolls), and that you have to show progress on your patent (the whole point of having one) in order to keep it.

Okay, yes, this is more of a hope than a prediction, but I truly believe that it’s coming.

Yahoo! Disintegration

Yahoo! is still a favoured company of mine. I would have liked to have worked for them (Secret Desire #43), had they not ended up where they are now. Microsoft is just waiting for the right moment to snatch up a piece or two, Google will likely acquire a couple of things (I recommend Flickr and Yahoo! Answers, should the inevitable happen), and the rest will end up in other various hands.

It’s not that I don’t have faith in Yahoo! being able to turn itself around, it’s just that blood has hit the water, and the sharks are circling. It’s just a matter of time … unless Yahoo! pulls out a previously-unknown trump card, that is.

President Obama Live-blogging

Obama was big news in 2008. I think he’ll continue being big news by doing something no other President has done — continue to tell people what he’s doing through his own channels. Already there is much talk about him having to give up his Blackberry (Presidential emails are archival material — Bush gave his email up for the last 8 years), and even though his Twitter account hasn’t shown any updates since November, I think he’ll take the bold move and slide out update notices every now and then.

Frankly, that’d be a really smart thing to do. Connect with your younger constituents, give them a direct feedback loop (comments are a powerful communciations tool), and engage people in the operation of your country. Given the state of the economy, engagement might be the single most useful tool Obama has in his utility belt.

Offshoring Increases

And back to the economy again. This one I see as more of a trend than a prediction, but I’m going to cover it with a couple of important notes/beliefs. First, offshoring will continue heavily for services, especially in the technology arena. But they won’t go to places you normally think of — namely, India.

Dissatisfied with a poorer-performing solution going through India, people will be looking to Eastern Europe, as well as Central and South America for less-expensive, but more flexible solutions. Be it call centers or actual technology development, people have already found these places to be diamonds in the rough, and it’s only time before exploitation turns into profitable partnership.

Google Monopoly Investigation

Everyone’s gotta have the long-shot, right? This is mine. This year, Google will be formally investigated by the Department of Commerce for monopolistic practices, notably within the field of online advertising. (This hearkens back to the attempted deal between Google and Yahoo!.) It won’t be a significant investigation — it will be started as a low-key issue — but it’ll snowball into something larger before it’s conveniently tied up and forgotten.